铒是一种广泛应用在战略性高科技产业中的重稀土元素。随着全球化发展的深入，铒元素的全球价值链分工也在持续演变，但围绕铒元素资源利用情况的研究尚显不足。该文围绕2011—2020年中国大陆的铒元素全生命周期物质流动特征进行分析，利用L.Ridenour阻滞增长模型进行需求情况的预测，并利用情景分析法进行二次资源供给情况的预测，以把握铒元素的资源利用现状并预判其未来走势。现状分析结果表明：选采矿阶段，中国含铒原矿的开采量整体呈现增长态势但复合年增长率仅为2%；分离精炼阶段，依靠国内供给很难满足铒元素加工阶段的需求，需要大量从海外进口氧化铒；制造、使用阶段，掺铒光纤放大器、医用激光晶体为主要的需求端口，含铒荧光材料、陶瓷材料领域的应用占比逐渐降低，且中国的铒元素终端产品从净进口逐渐转变为净出口，在全球铒元素价值链中的地位不断提升。预测结果表明：针对掺铒光纤放大器、医用激光晶体的需求将持续增长，并保持为铒元素的主要应用领域；伴随回收率的提升，当年回收率增长1.5%时，至2029年二次资源供给占比将超过当年需求量的5%。因此，铒元素产业上游开采冶炼亟待规范管理；提高供铒元素价值链的透明度和可追溯性，同时通过适当的政策调节以引导铒元素流向需求高增领域，将进一步巩固、抬升中国在全球铒元素价值链中的地位。

Abstract

Objective: Erbium is a heavy rare earth element widely used in strategic high-tech industries. As globalization progresses, the global value chain division of labor for erbium continues to change. However, the limited volume of erbium usage complicates data collection for research, leading to a scarcity of studies on the use of erbium resources. Methods: This study analyzes the material flow characteristics of erbium throughout its full lifecycle in the Chinese Mainland from 2011 to 2020. The L. Ridenour logistic growth model is used to forecast demand, and scenario analysis is conducted to predict the supply of secondary resources, aiming to assess the current state of erbium resource utilization and predict future trends. Results: The analysis of the current situation reveals that during the mining stage, the extraction of raw ore containing erbium in China has generally increased; however, the compound annual growth rate is only 2%. The production of erbium-containing rare earth concentrates experienced two notable declines, mainly owing to changes in international circumstances and policies. In the separation and refining stages, domestic supply does not meet the processing demands for erbium, leading to substantial imports of erbium oxide, which increased from 471.06 tons in 2011 to 522.45 tons in 2020. In the manufacturing and usage phases, erbium-doped fiber amplifiers remain the largest application, accounting for 37% of the demand in 2020. The second-largest application is medical laser crystals, which continue to observe growing demand. In addition, the proportion of erbium demand in glass materials rose from 8% in 2011 to 17% in 2020 owing to the increasing application of rare earth elements in the glass industry, whereas the applications of erbium in fluorescent and ceramic materials gradually decreased. The position of China in the global erbium value chain has been steadily improving, transitioning from a net importer to a net exporter of erbium-based end products. However, China remained a net importer in the end-product sector in 2020 owing to substantial imports of aluminum-erbium alloys. The cumulative amount of waste generated in the medical laser crystal sector reached 1 331.34 tons in 2020, making it the largest waste source, whereas the cumulative stock-in-use for erbium-doped fiber amplifiers reached 2 624.76 tons, the highest among all sectors. Forecasts indicate that by 2029, the demand for Chinese erbium-based products will reach 1 017.92 tons, with continued growth for erbium-doped fiber amplifiers and medical laser crystals projected to reach 407.16 and 271.65 tons, respectively, by 2029, solidifying their roles as primary applications. If recycling rates increase by 1.5% annually, the supply of secondary resources will exceed 5% of the annual demand by 2029. Conclusions: The erbium industry should actively work to reduce its dependence on overseas supply chains, diversify its sources of erbium supply, and improve the transparency and traceability of the erbium value chain. In addition, this industry should direct the flow of erbium toward high-end applications, such as erbium-doped fiber amplifiers and medical laser crystals, through appropriate policy adjustments. These actions will further strengthen and enhance the position of China in the global erbium value chain.

关键词

铒元素 /

物质流分析 /

需求预测 /

全球价值链 /

资源安全

Key words

erbium element /

material flow analysis /

demand forecasting /

global value chain /

resources security